Summary of the Market Overview by Tina Tamboer at The Cromford Report
Using Arizona MLS numbers as of November 1, 2025, compared with November 1, 2024.
According to Tina, the Valley saw an increase in listings within Retirement Communities and the Luxury Market. However, Luxury Listings remain low, and new Luxury builds are still scarce. The market remains active, supported by strong stock market performance and the lowest interest rates in a long time, even though unemployment numbers are not favorable.
As mentioned in previous updates, data from the Cromford Report has shown the Valley in a mild Buyer’s Market over the past few months (where we typically expect price cuts and concessions). We are now moving toward a Balanced Market (e.g., Phoenix), with an eventual shift into another Seller’s Market. However, our outlying cities remain solidly in a Buyer’s Market.
Our Luxury areas have shifted back to Seller’s Markets due to low inventory levels. This is normal given the seasonal nature of the market—Luxury homes typically come off the market during the hotter months when there are fewer out-of-state buyers, and they return to the market after 90 days with MLS “Days on Market” reset to zero.
Data trends indicate that our housing market should return to balance by early 2026, though this will depend on factors such as policy changes, interest rates, and the number of Sellers entering the market.
While the economic climate varies across the country—with some states facing recession concerns—the Valley’s outlook remains positive and expanding. The construction of many large projects continues to supply jobs, attract professionals, and significantly impact real estate demand, especially for homes near these new business hubs.
The lower inventory of homes for sale and the current Buyer’s Market in lower-priced areas have reduced much of the Buyer’s leverage. However, Buyers are still able to secure concessions and attractive interest rates.
Because inventory and activity are traditionally limited in the fourth quarter, it is a favorable time for Buyers in both the Luxury and Retirement sectors, as some Sellers are highly motivated and offering concessions.
Once again, Tina agrees that the market is shifting and should move into a solid Seller’s Market in the coming months. This will likely be followed by prices bottoming out in current Buyer’s Market areas, as pricing typically lags behind the market shift.
This is an ideal time for Buyers with “less-than-perfect credit” or those needing a sales contingency, rather than waiting to time the absolute bottom of the market. If interest rates drop further—or if Buyers gain confidence in market stability—competition for homes will increase, leaving these less-than-perfect Buyers at a disadvantage as they compete with stronger home seekers.
A homeowner who buys today may need to wait a few months after closing to see their home value rise, but they will have a new home in the meantime. Those who wait will see prices rise soon after move-in but will pay more for that security and may have to settle for a less-than-ideal home due to competition.
For Sellers, data from September shows that “Days on Market” continues to increase. Cromford suggests Sellers should prepare for longer market times than previous data indicated, and that listing contracts be for at least six months.
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